Economics Made Economical

Ron Paul’s Numbers Continue To Plummet

As Tea Party favorites like Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, and–oddly–non-contender Sarah Palin continue to pick up steam in the GOP primary race, the most notorious of the small-government champions, Ron Paul, appears to be the biggest casualty of the other three’s rising poll numbers. Typically these four Republicans land in the top five, in varying orders, along with big-government candidate Mitt Romney in most scientific polls of GOP voters.

The most stable of the group so far have been Cain and Palin, whose numbers have barely changed, or in Cain’s case have seen slow but steady and predictable growth as his national name recognition increases. Romney and Bachmann’s numbers, however, have been volatile. They both received huge sudden boosts after formally declaring their candidacies, but their numbers have fluctuated wildly from poll to poll and state to state.

Ron Paul, the candidate who declared his intentions to run earliest and the only of the five who has been a contender in the primaries for more than two cycles, had reached his support ceiling well before this election cycle. It is typical for him to perform consistently between 8 and 10% in scientific polls from year to year. However he has recently decreased unexpectedly from those levels, bottoming out at 5% in many recent polls.

Is Cain eating away at his support with his business savvy and refreshing directness? Is Bachmann’s recent declaration pulling the Paul supporters toward her more electable more likeable personality? With Palin likely to formally acknowledge not running, which Tea Partier, Bachmann or Cain, will be most likely to draw in her supporters?

With Paul’s numbers continuing to drop, the candidates below the top five likely withdrawing, and Palin out of the running, it seems that Bachmann, Cain, or Romney will end up receiving the nomination in the end. For the nation’s continued economic viability, we can only hope that the Cain and Bachmann supporters eventually agree to support one or the other over Romney so our next leader will tilt our economy away from socialism and back toward market capitalism.



  1. CNN had Mr. Ron Paul at 78%. TownHall june poll put Mr. Paul gaining about 6% to 23%, hes gained in NH, Iowa, and nationally, as well as Fox Polls, MSN Polls, etc.

    What on earth are You smoking Sir and what is Your point for posting this untrue and uncited drivel.

  2. Those are straw polls and other forms of voluntary polling. They aren’t scientific polls.

    The numbers stated in my post come from the most recent polls. I had mentioned Gallup in a recent earlier post and neglected to link to it again because I linked to my earlier post instead.

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  1. More Good News For Herman Cain & The Tea Party « Econoblog

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