Economics Made Economical

Is Herman Cain America’s Next President?

The latest Gallup poll on the 2012 Presidential election reveals some interesting developments. For one President Obama’s vote percentage relative to a generic GOP challenger is among its lowest levels since Gallup began tracking these statistics several months ago. Were the election held during the June 9-June 12 polling period, Obama would receive only 39% of the vote compared to 44% for a generic Republican challenger; this change is also notable because the 5% difference falls outside the poll’s margin of error and therefore indicates the numbers are not due to chance differences alone.

Along with Michele Bachmann’s formal announcement, she sees a boost in many of her statistics. For the first time since tracking began, Herman Cain is not the leader in Positive Intensity. Instead, he and Bachmann are statistically tied with a rounded score of 24 apiece, although Bachmann’s number actually appears to be around 24.3 when not rounded off.

What Else Puts Cain Ahead?

  • He still places third in ballot support at 9%, behind only Romney and Palin, and ahead of Ron Paul’s 7% and Bachmann’s 5%. And he achieves this despite having merely half the name recognition that Romney and Palin do.
  • His name recognition, though making only modest gains every week, is up to 46%; the other candidates’ recognition has either plateaued or, in some strange cases, is in a decrease. This includes Rick Santorum, whom Cain trails by only 3% in this measure. The candidates that measure higher than Santorum–which include Paul, Palin, and Romney–have basically reached their maximum potential for this measure.
  • Cain has the second highest percentage of voters who rate him “Very Favorably” with 25% barely behind Bachmann’s 26%; conversely, he has the lowest “Strongly Unfavorable” percentage (1%) just ahead of Bachmann’s 2%. At the other end of the spectrum, Palin, Gingrich, and Paul have the highest “Strongly Unfavorable” ratings (8%, 8%, and 5%, respectively).
  • In a similar measurement, he has the lowest “Unfavorable” rating (13%), besting Bachmann (14%) and Romney (16%) again, while Gingrich (31%)  and Paul (23%) fall at the opposite end.
  • In the “Favorable” category, he places fourth, behind contenders who have less than half what he does in the “Strongly Favorable” category.
  • Combining “Strongly Favorable” and “Favorable” into one group, Cain easily leads the pack at 73%, followed by non-contender Palin (70%), Bachmann (70%), Romney (70%), Tim Pawlenty (66%), Santorum (62%), and Paul (58%).
  • Combining the two “Unfavorable” groups, Cain also comes out on top: 14%, followed by Bachmann, Pawlenty, Romney, and Santorum (16%, 16%, 19%, and 20%, respectively).



    1. Is Ron Paul a Serious Contender? « Econoblog
    2. Ron Paul’s Numbers Continue To Plummet « Econoblog
    3. More Good News For Herman Cain & The Tea Party « Econoblog

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