Econoblog

Economics Made Economical

Is Herman Cain America’s Next President?


The latest Gallup poll on the 2012 Presidential election reveals some interesting developments. For one President Obama’s vote percentage relative to a generic GOP challenger is among its lowest levels since Gallup began tracking these statistics several months ago. Were the election held during the June 9-June 12 polling period, Obama would receive only 39% of the vote compared to 44% for a generic Republican challenger; this change is also notable because the 5% difference falls outside the poll’s margin of error and therefore indicates the numbers are not due to chance differences alone.

Along with Michele Bachmann’s formal announcement, she sees a boost in many of her statistics. For the first time since tracking began, Herman Cain is not the leader in Positive Intensity. Instead, he and Bachmann are statistically tied with a rounded score of 24 apiece, although Bachmann’s number actually appears to be around 24.3 when not rounded off.

What Else Puts Cain Ahead?

  • He still places third in ballot support at 9%, behind only Romney and Palin, and ahead of Ron Paul’s 7% and Bachmann’s 5%. And he achieves this despite having merely half the name recognition that Romney and Palin do.
  • His name recognition, though making only modest gains every week, is up to 46%; the other candidates’ recognition has either plateaued or, in some strange cases, is in a decrease. This includes Rick Santorum, whom Cain trails by only 3% in this measure. The candidates that measure higher than Santorum–which include Paul, Palin, and Romney–have basically reached their maximum potential for this measure.
  • Cain has the second highest percentage of voters who rate him “Very Favorably” with 25% barely behind Bachmann’s 26%; conversely, he has the lowest “Strongly Unfavorable” percentage (1%) just ahead of Bachmann’s 2%. At the other end of the spectrum, Palin, Gingrich, and Paul have the highest “Strongly Unfavorable” ratings (8%, 8%, and 5%, respectively).
  • In a similar measurement, he has the lowest “Unfavorable” rating (13%), besting Bachmann (14%) and Romney (16%) again, while Gingrich (31%)  and Paul (23%) fall at the opposite end.
  • In the “Favorable” category, he places fourth, behind contenders who have less than half what he does in the “Strongly Favorable” category.
  • Combining “Strongly Favorable” and “Favorable” into one group, Cain easily leads the pack at 73%, followed by non-contender Palin (70%), Bachmann (70%), Romney (70%), Tim Pawlenty (66%), Santorum (62%), and Paul (58%).
  • Combining the two “Unfavorable” groups, Cain also comes out on top: 14%, followed by Bachmann, Pawlenty, Romney, and Santorum (16%, 16%, 19%, and 20%, respectively).
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3 Comments

    Trackbacks

    1. Is Ron Paul a Serious Contender? « Econoblog
    2. Ron Paul’s Numbers Continue To Plummet « Econoblog
    3. More Good News For Herman Cain & The Tea Party « Econoblog

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